Thursday 19 November 2009

Emblazes interim management statement leaves questions unanswered

Just days after taking a stake in Emblaze the company today came out with an interim management statement. It broadly stated that the group is performing to management expectations. They mentioned that the growth arm of the company has seen improving profits even in the current market conditions. I won’t provide detailed information of the growth arm business as this is as I mentioned in my post of a few days ago (http://sibovalue.blogspot.com/2009/11/emblaze-value-play-with-smartphone.html) the backbone of the company and on which it can lay a steady foundation.


The innovation arm is where the potential upside resides and in particular in Emblaze Mobile. The company confirmed that the official launch of the first phone using the companies Else intuition mobile platform will be on the 24th of November. However it did not go into detail on any contracts with operators or manufacturers. All they said was that “Management believes that the Group's mobile activity will make a contribution to revenues and profits for the Group in 2010 and beyond”. I would have hoped for a stronger endorsement than that. The word “significant” added to that sentence would have been nice to see as this is I am hoping for a significant contribution from Emblaze Mobile in the future.

I managed to find a link to the launch website of the first ELSE phone http://www.else.bz/#/news
The thing that slightly worries me is that under their mission statement they say “We hope to convince at least one major handset vendor to market them under their brand”. I would have hoped that at this stage, just 5 days before the launch they would already have had a launch customer for the phone. I’m hoping that the website, like so many, is slightly out of date and at least one customer will be unveiled at the launch. One thing is for sure next week is going to be very interesting.

Waterman Group lacklustre interim statement provides a buying opportunity

Waterman Group, the engineering and environmental consultant, today issued a brief interim management statement, which sent the shares sharply south. Early morning trading saw the shares down 12%. So what was so bad about this management statement? Was it a lack of new orders? Were customers not paying bills? Well all in all it wasn’t anything merely as drastic. Trading has been in line with management expectations.
According to Waterman the UK and European property markets are still depressed, but the Australian business has seen signs of recovery. The Middle-East is still challenging for the group, but they have recently started receiving new enquires for their services.
On the public sector side Waterman is seeing good opportunities and workload and they also expect the energy sector to provide an improving workload as there needs to be a lot of future investment in infrastructure.
The environmental side of the business is seeing an in increase in enquiries. However margins are expected to be lower than in previous years due to the economic downturn.
The group concluded its statement by saying that although there were still challenges the long term prospects remain good.

So was this management statement worthy of a 12% drop in the share price? The message was mixed and maybe overall slightly downbeat, although there were glimpses of a recovery in some of the statements; “recent sign of recovery” in relation to the Australian business. “New enquires for service” from both the middle-east property sector and the energy sector“and “an improving workload” in relation to the energy market. I personally believe that the drop is due to the fact that investors were hoping for more signs of a recovery and a more upbeat statement.

However the fact remains, that Waterman has continued to trade profitably throughout the recession. It is trading at a P/E ratio of just 5 on last year’s numbers. These numbers include one of charges relating to provisions for bad debts and restructuring charges. Without the one off charges the P/E ratio would have been just over 2. The shares are also trading at as big discount to the net asset value of 126p per share and only carry a modest debt. I believe the long term prospects for Waterman remain very good and I would suggest that the current share price provides a buying opportunity.

The author holds shares in Waterman.

Tuesday 17 November 2009

Emblaze a value play with smartphone potential

After receiving a payout from the ENRC takeover of CAMEC last week, I have used some of the money to take a position in Emblaze Group (BLZ). Emblaze is a Technology company which has 2 main areas of business Growth and Innovation. The growth side consists of a 50.1% holding in NASDAQ listed Formula Systems (FORTY). Formula Systems holds majority stakes in 3 NASDAQ listed technology companies, all of which are trading profitably. The Innovation side of the business consists of a majority stake in Zone-IP Ltd, a video conferencing software supplier, a 95% stake in Emoze, which has developed a software solution which allows any phone to accept email.
The most exciting part of the innovation side of the business though is Emblaze Mobile, which together with well renowned partners has developed a smart phone, which they will believe will revolutionise the business. This Mobile entitled the Else Intuition, the statistics of the phone are very impressive and I am hopeful that they will announce contracts with some major telecommunications companies. Should this phone be even moderately successful then there is tremendous scope for the share price to rise.
Should the Else Intuition fail to take-off then I imagine the shares will see a sharp drop, but will then quickly recover as the rest of the business is taken into account. Emblazes stake in Formula Systems is valued at today’s market capitalisation and exchange rate at just over £47million, which is a big chunk of the £57million market capitalisation of Emblaze. I also believe that Formula Systems is currently significantly undervalued. It is trading at a P/E ratio of 13.5, which is low for a growth company; it is also yielding an impressive 20% dividend. It has current assets which cover both the short term and long term debt and it has total net asset value of $279million. This means that if Formula Systems were to sell at their net asset value Emblazes stake would be worth over £83million. Which is actually an increase of 45% to today’s market capitalisation. You could argue that Formula Systems should trade at a discount to their net asset value, however if they were trading at their net asset value the shares would be trading at a P/E of 23.6 which is not that inconceivable for a growth company, the yield would also still be an impressive 8.7%.
So in conclusion I believe the downside is capped and the potential upside is significant. The Else Intuition which is scheduled for launch on the 24th of November could be the company changing product that will transform this company into a major player in the important smart phone market. I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed, but should it not live up to the hype I am happy in the knowledge that the other components of the company still make this a value play.

Monday 16 November 2009

Interserve trading in line with expectations, shares flat

Interserve issued an interim management statement, in which the company said that trading was in line with expectations. The facilities management arm was one of the better performers as companies look to outsource services to save costs. They did however confirm that they will have to include an £11.6 million fine by the office of fair trading in the 2009 results. The shares were generally flat on the news, starting slightly down, but ending the day up as the general stock market sentiment was in an upward direction. I'm still very happy to hold Interserve I think it has excellent potential and it is currently available at a P/E ratio of five, although they will have to take an impairment charge on the oft fine, so next year’s P/E might be slightly higher. It is also yielding over 7% and in my view is therefore worth buying for the dividend alone.

Saturday 14 November 2009

An interesting week.

This week has been quite exciting for my portfolio. During the week the ENRC takeover of Camec completed and I got the cash in my account. This resulted in a very nice profit of 557.28% since I bought the shares at the end of february, so that's a very good return over 9 months. That's my first real profit of this portfolio. The total portfolio is up 207.21%, but I guess the majority of this is a paper profit as I have no plans to sell any holdings unless they become severely overvalued. In a way it was good to see the first actual profit roll in, but I do feel ENRC got a bargain as my price target for CAMEC was 30p. However I do retain some exposure to the CAMEC assets as Kazachkmys hold a 26% stake in ENRC. The CAMEC completion in a way was the highlight of the week, but I have known it's been coming for a while. So I guess the actual news of the week was, in a way, more exciting.

On monday Lonrho had a positive trading update, which it took the market a while to digest as the share price didn't start moving up till the end of the week, but it did see a 20% rise in the week.

On tuesday Vodafone had their 1st half results, which didn't really suprise, their profits were slightly up, mostly on cost saving efforts. They also announced they are going to double the cost savings to £2billion. I like Vodafone as it's basically a cash machine, it's yielding 6% at the weeks closing price, and I'm getting closer to 7% on my initial buy in price. It's difficult to get anywhere close to that return in a bank and you do gain exposure to some emerging market's which should see the dividends increase year on year. The market seemed indifferent to the results as Vodafone was flat on the week.

Wednesday was a quiet day and there was no news fom any of my portfolio stocks.

Thursday saw Stobart announce a new 3 year £60million deal with Unilever, suprisingly the market didn't really react, I find this strange as it's another major blue chip customer and it adds significant revenue and also fills in a few gaps and hopefully will increase the percentage of journeys that are full. for example a truck will pick up at a Unilever factory it will go to the Unilever distribution center, then pick-up unilever goods to deliver to the Tesco distribution center, then pick-up goods to deliver to a Tesco store. It they can combine these routes then it could be a good cost-saver.

on friday there were no news announcements, but there was a decent 3.5% rise in Lonrho and a dramatic 17.9% rise in Waterman Group. i think the Waterman rise is due to the fact that an interim management statement is due soon and on fundamentals this stock looks very undervalued.

During the week I've also been researching new shares to invest in as the money from CAMEC has come through. I have some decent ideas, for shares that I aminteresyted in and are close to an entry point that I can live with, but unless there is a margin of safety I will not take the plunge. If anyone has any ideas please feel free to share them with me.

Saturday 7 November 2009

Just a quick post to recommend two books. One is the Buffett: The Biography (Duckworth) By Roger Lowenstein. This biography gives an account of Buffett's life from when he was a child till he decides to give most of his wealth away after his death(to the Melinda and Bill Gates foundation). The second is The Intelligent Investor which is written by Buffett's mentor Benjamin Graham. Buffett himself recommends this book and it is in fact the foundation of his investment strategy. I think that if you read both of these books you will get a good insight of the man. The intelligent investor is more technical and explains investing strategies. Whilst his biography gives an insight as to how he implements these strategies and then evolves them further.

Sibo Value Fund

Hi,

My name's Serko and I have a big interest in share dealing, or I should say investing as I try and keep my trades to a minimum. I subscribe to the Warren Buffett school of investing, which is typically a buy and hold startegy. It's all about buying the right businesses at the right price though. You should note that I said businesses instead of shares, that is another one of Buffett's philosophies, you invest in a share of a business, not just in a ticker symbol. Therefore the underlying business must be sound and well managed. I currently have the following shares in my portfolio; Camec(CFM), Eros(EROS), Goldenport(GPRT), Interserve(IRV), Kazackmys(KAZ), Lonrho(LONR), Stobart(STOB), Vodafone(VOD), White Young(WHY), Waterman Group(WTM). I will go through this portfolio and explain for each share my rationale for buying, please be aware though that I am not tipping these shares as in some cases the value that I initially saw isn't there anymore. Either due to new information or the fact that the shares have already risen significantly and there is now no margin of safety anymore in buying them.

Camec (CFM) bought at 3.15p per share. This company is a Mining company with operations in Africa, their main production facilities are in the Democratic republic of Congo, where they produce Copper and Cobalt. They also have various exploration assets all over Africa. However I won't delve too much into this company as they are about to be taken over by ENRC at 20p per share. This share has gone up over 500%

Eros (EROS) bought at 77.85p per share. This company is an indian media company with it's main focus on bollywood films. They have a catalogue of over 1200 films, which in my opinion is the backbone of this company. Less than 1/3 of their revenue comes from Cinema releases. The rest comes from digital(DVD, VOD, music downloads, etc) and their most important segment is TV syndication. Furthermore they have a 51% stake in Ayngaran which is a similar business, but in the Tamil langauge section instead of Bollywood. They also have a 51% stake in Eyeqube a visual effects company and a 24% stake in B4U a company that runs a bollywood movie channel and a bollywood music channel. The Indian market is one that I really like and the fact over 66% of the revenue comes from their catalogue means there is a strong margin of safety in this stock especially as the stock is only on a p/e of less than 7 and it has strong growth prospects.

Goldenport (GPRT) bought at 106.11p per share. This share is a play on the world economy it is in the shipping sector which saw big drops due to the economic crisis. In my view this share was oversold and there is significant scope for future rises as the economy improves. They operate with little debt in releationship to their assets and a lot of their ships are contracted on long term deals. They're trading at 2.5x the 2008 price earnings ratio and although the results this year are expected to be a lot worse they are still profitbale. Should they be able to get back to the same profitability in the next few years as in 2008 then this will be a real bargain share.

Interserve(IRV) bought at 188.57p per share. This share is in the construction and facilities management services market. They have significant presence in the Middle East as well as the UK. I bought these as they have a high yield over 7% and a low pe ratio of just over 5. They have long term contracts in the facilities management side of the business, which gives a certain degree of visibility over future revenue. Although the construction industry is expected to suffer a downturn I beleive Interserve will be able to pick up more facilities management business as customers look to outsource. They also have a strong equipment rental business, which is operating at high margins and is very active in the Middle-East and the Middle-East is expected to invest heavilly in infrastructure over the coming years so there is a big scope to increase revenue over the medium term.

Kazachkmys (KAZ) bought at 270.17p per share. Kazachkmys is a miner based in kazahkstan with it's main emphasis on Copper. The reason I like this share is that it has a large stake in ENRC, which is also a kazach based miner, but it gives exposure to different commodities. Apart from Copper Kazachkmys also have operations in Gold, power generation and they are involved in petroleum exploration. The p/e for 2010 are expected to be around 7, which I believe offers great value.

Lonrho(LONR) bought at 8.09p per share. Lonrho is a diversified African conglomerate which operates in 5 main sectors Infrastructure, agribusiness, Support Services, Transportation and Hotels. It has operations that include a large port, an airline, a fruit and veg supplier, bottled water plants, hotels, etc and in countries as diverse as Angola, South Africa, Mozambique, Kenya, Equitorial Guinea. The reason I've invested in this share is that I see a lot of potential and I believe Africa, will become an increasingly important part of the world economy.

Stobart (STOB) bought at 114p per share. Stobart is a multi-modal logistics group, most famously known for it's Eddie Stobart truck business. However it is much more than this, it has a warehousing division, a ports division, a rail division and an air division. The warehousing division has a diverse client base, it's biggest client is probably Nestle, for who they hold 75% of their stock. The ports division is basically a muit-modal inland port, with connections to the M6 and the west coast mainline as well as a waterway port on the manchester ship canal. The rail division does enginerring work for the Stobart group as well as for external clients. Stobart has various rail operations in the UK, with Tesco being the main customer. They also recently started a 48 hour Valencia to UK chilled rail service, which supplies 30 truck loads of fresh food directly from Spain to the UK. It is expected that this will become a dialy service within the year. The air division comprises of ownership of Carlisle airport and Southend airport. Carlisle airport will become the head office and large hub for the Eddie Stobart operation. At Southend airport a new railway station is being built, that will mean there will be a 46min connection to Central London.

Vodafone (VOD) bought at 117.99p per share. I guess Vodafone doesn't need much introduction. The reason I've invested in this is that it is paying a solid dividend of approximately 6% and it is generating significant amounts of free cash flow. It also has some exposure to emerging markets in Africa and India, so there is still potential to grow the business.

White Young (WHY) bought at 11.54p. I bought this consultancy business as it was in trouble and the share price had collapsed. I felt there it had been undervalued, although a restructuring was needed. The restructuring is now taking place and existing shareholders will be left with 15% of the company. I was expecting a little less dilution, but still see an upside in the future.

Waterman (WTM) bought at 43.42p per share. This company is in a similar field to White Young, but it has managed it's debt a lot better. It is currently trading at a p/e of around 4.